How will Election 2024 affect social media ad rates?
The Arbiter, Vol 1., No. 11
As we approach the 2024 Presidential election cycle, political digital ad spend is set to break records. According to Emarketer, total spend could exceed $3 billion, up 156% from 20201. Connected TV (CTV) will dominate, claiming around 45% of digital spend, which equates to $1.56 billion—a 500% increase from 2020. Meanwhile, social media spend, heavily concentrated on Meta platforms, is projected to reach $605 million, growing slower than CTV but still surpassing 2020 figures significantly.
Historically, political advertising sees a massive surge in the final 30 days of the campaign season, with Basis predicting half of all political dollars in 2024 will be spent during this period. This late-cycle influx has the potential to drive up CPM rates, especially in battleground states where a heavier volume of ads is expected to compete for limited ad inventory.
According to AdImpact, 79% of presidential ad spending has been concentrated in seven pivotal states since Vice President Kamala Harris officially entered the race2. AdImpact predicts these same states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—will capture 88% of ad buys between now and Election Day.
The impact on ad rates—while difficult to predict—will be dependent on both geography and platform. TikTok, for instance, has said it does not predict that its CPM rates will be impacted, for one simple reason: TikTok doesn’t officially allow campaign advertising. But that reasoning doesn’t account for the more complex cross-platform dynamics at work. For instance, with political dollars flooding TV and CTV, traditional advertisers may find themselves displaced or priced out of those markets — resulting in a knock-on migration to more affordable mobile-video-friendly platforms like TikTok.
Google, too, is poised for substantial growth in political ad revenue, expected to capture over $500 million—more than double its 2020 earnings. This overall increase in digital ad spend, coupled with the rise in demand for CTV and Meta ads, will contribute to significantly higher CPM rates, particularly in contested regions. Basis, for instance, has suggested that rates could be as much as 40% higher as we near Election Day.
As it did in 2020, Google will pause election advertisements immediately after the polls close, creating a window during which “advertisers will be prevented from running ads in the U.S. referencing candidates, ballot measures, election processes and outcomes,” according to Politico3.
Still, a backlog of shopping ads—those being displaced by the deluge of campaign ads flooding CTV during an accelerated holiday season—could cause elevated CPM rates to continue after the election concludes, as heightened demand overflows into mid-November and December. For instance, Hulu’s ad rates are expected to rise between 16% and 44% between November 11 and December 2, well after the election spend subsides.
For brands with ads in-market for swing states — or anyone contemplating large-scale CTV buys in Q4 — it’s not too late (yet) to seek relief by booking in advance. But for those hoping to “wait out” the election storm in the hopes of finding smoother seas on the other side, our guidance is that ad rates will likely continue to go up until late in the year.
1 “2024 Political Ad Spending Will Jump Nearly 30% vs. 2020,” Emarketer.
2 “Record-breaking 2024 US political ad spend likely to disrupt commercial media landscape,” The Drum.
3 "Google To Block Election Ads After Polls Close,” Politico
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